Monday, December 14, 2020

why hasn't assad stepped down yet, then?

well, it's not clear how many of his generals want him to, or how long a different civilian leader would last. his character may have even been irreversibly changed. the russians don't seem keen on it, either. so, i can't answer that question directly.

what i can say is that the situation on the ground seems to have effectively put the process on hold indefinitely - and that the saudis got what they really wanted, even though they lost the actual war.

they managed to pass a very minimal set of reforms in 2012 and had an election in 2014, but you really can't have a meaningful election in a country in the state syria was in then, or is even in now. there's another election scheduled for 2021, but it's still hard to imagine how you have an election in a country that remains in shambles.