Saturday, April 20, 2024

i would strongly suspect that the test incursion into iran by israel yesterday was a data gathering exercise rather than a retaliatory strike. it would be rational to expect the israelis to test iran's defenses as a preliminary step rather than just start shooting missiles.

that said, did i say 100 missiles for tit-for-tat? i meant 350 missiles. those 350 missiles need not all land in iran; indeed, israel's self-interest would suggest most of them should be targeted at hezbollah. that is a large balance for israeli payback still to come, nonetheless.

it's not clear that there are 350 targets in iran worth hitting. it is clear there are 350 targets in lebanon worth hitting.