the russians are talking tough about retaliation for escalation in the east; yet, poroshenko reacted to the airport seizure in strongman fashion. whatever the law says, it's a show of force, and there's little doubt that it was directed at russia. poroshenko is of course a new entity at this level, and i don't claim to understand him well, but i can't believe he would be foolish enough to mean the show of force to be a challenge. rather, it's a message that he will defend himself if provoked.

that doesn't negate the russian threats, and they ought to be taken seriously. they have repeatedly warned that the kind of escalation poroshenko put down will be responded to harshly, for the precise reason that they do not want a full war. for all poroshenko's intent to send a message of territorial integrity and whatnot, the russians have made it clear that they are going to control the area for the foreseeable future. they've also made it clear that they want it done peacefully.

so, they're not going to invade. that would be foolish, and everybody outside of the western press can see that. maybe they can, too, and it's just dramatic television.

they're not going to cut off gas supplies, either. that's a punitive attack on the ukrainian people, not on the ukrainian government. putin understands the difference.

he's not stalin.

rather, he's a pussy cat, as i keep saying. he wants to bully his way forward, but he doesn't want to actually hurt anybody.

however. and this is a big however.

i think it exceedingly unlikely that the russians are just going to sit there for the next ten years shooting down helicopters amidst heavy casualties. as the clear aim is to minimize casualties, they are going to respond somehow. and, the pattern is through a show of force, and the use of the *threat* of that force (rather than it's actualization) to seize control of what it wants.

so, how does putin find a way to bully ukraine into grounding it's planes under the threat of severe consequence? i can think of a few things. they are drastic. i would prefer not to give anybody any ideas.

but note the threat of serious consequence, and that it should be taken seriously.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/31/world/europe/russia-and-ukraine-in-talks-over-gas-supplies.html