Thursday, October 30, 2014

the thing about the ukip and the national front is that the ukip is a lot more moderate than it's base is.

it's one thing to point out "the ukip is not the bnp" - and be absolutely correct. it's another thing to point out that there's a large overlap in the voting base. these kinds of arrangements never work out for "moderates", if that's what you want to call the libertarian wing of the ukip. the base always wins in the end. what you're stuck with, then, is this unstable coalition of nationalists and libertarians that's set to fracture the moment farage aligns himself against national front policies that are popular with his own base. it produces the inevitability of mutinies in caucus. farage can yell and scream all he wants, but his party is on a set trajectory and it's an alarming one.

the best case scenario is that the whole thing falls apart before the next election, but i think relying on that really underestimates the strength of the far right in britain. talk of tories picking up the positions is really long overdue. if winston churchill were alive today, he'd be more likely to be aligned with one of these fringe parties. there's a strong aspect of british culture intertwined within them.

so, yes, it's prudent to be careful with what labels you put on farage's head - but it's equally important to be aware of the views of the voters he's representing, which are considerably more extreme than his are.