this is the key point right now.

and, yeah, it's a threat for massive instability. but the realpolitik people don't seem to clue in: it has no end point but collapse.

http://ramenir.com/2014/09/27/the-middle-east-proxy-war-you-didnt-know-about/

In August, The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt carried out a series of secret airstrikes within Libya with the purpose of slowing down the advance of Islamist militias in Tripoli, specifically...

this article seems to get a few points backwards, though, especially in syria. my understanding is isis is primarily saudi-backed and the fsa was a turkish front group. the part about egypt is correct, though.

photo from voice of america. yeah. well, it's getting the right idea across, anyways.

egypt is often touted as "the most important arab country". what that means is it has the most people, and the largest standing army. but the historical empires in the region this side of the roman empire have been centered in mecca and istanbul. turkey has been trying for a while to reassert a level of hegemony over the last few years, partly because it's been rejected from europe. i've been over this before...

the world is uniting in trade blocs. russia is going through the same spasms, and god forbid a turko-russian union (which would be a historic shift of a nature unseen since the entente cordiale). russia and turkey have been fighting for centuries. turkey is in nato _because_ of the threat of russia. that would dismantle the world as we know it.

but, what does turkey do? it can't get into europe. the arabs don't like them any more than the european do, as there's still that level of animosity. well, 1000 years of colonialism doesn't disappear in a century. there's cultural logic in a central asia union of turkey, iran and the former ssrs, but this is infeasible in a geo-strategic standpoint, as iran remains isolated and those ssrs aren't getting out of a sino-russian entente any time soon.

turkey faces extreme isolation. this is providing it with a set of incentives to try and resurrect the ottoman empire.

so, when you look at turkish influence in syria and egypt and libya and palestine, there's a historical context that unites with a current economic one.

the saudis don't like that, for obvious reasons. they were promised control over the region during world war one, and probably would have got it if it wasn't for zionism.

so, there's a serious conflict building here between a turkey that is desperate for economic integration and an arab league that wants them the fuck out of their sphere.

the back and forth in egypt was a back and forth between turkish and saudi front groups - and the saudis won. the infighting in syria between rebel groups was a proxy war between turkey and the saudis - and the saudis won.

so, now the yankees need to step in and fix it before it explodes...

yes, the qataris are a wild card, but that's a struggle for hegemony in the arab league. the qatari-turkey alliance is one of convenience. should the qataris overtake the saudis as the controlling interest in the gulf, one would expect them to take on the same interests as the saudis.

it's fundamentally a turkish-arab conflict.

and, as i've stated, that possible russo-turko-iranian alliance is a real game changer.

"we" might "lose" turkey. it's been a real possibility now for several years.