except that the national numbers are broadly misleading because they mask various levels of regional dominance. if current trends hold, the maritimes, suburban ontario and urban quebec will likely vote in liberals - and the urban sections of the prairie provinces, the urban cores in ontario and the vast bulk of rural quebec and northern ontario will likely vote in new democrats, with quite a few areas in urban ontario and urban quebec being ndp-liberal races where the conservatives are not competitive. bc seems to perhaps be volatile. it's easy to look at the numbers and do the math, but it's not always useful depending on the demographics - unless the parties were to sign a pact before hand. this vote splitting scenario really only occurs if the ndp vote rises in the 905 and 519 areas around the gta; that will merely elect conservatives. and in some areas of bc and manitoba that are less clear cut in terms of cause and effect.

ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/loewen-polls-on-vote-splitting-tell-frustrating-story-for-ndp-and-liberals