the most politically important part of the refugee part of the poll is that 25% of liberals and 15% of dippers think we're bringing in too many refugees. i'd need some polls on the topic directly to be sure. but i would think that people that think we should do more on this issue would be very unlikely to change their vote on this topic alone, but that people that are...racists, basically...might find the issue has some pull. and, yes - there are plenty of racists that habitually vote ndp and/or liberal.

these numbers are more realistic than what we're seeing elsewhere. big sample sizes. phones, not panels. but, a few days behind. you want to believe this poll, whether you like the results or not.

and i don't. but it's reflecting the problem that the liberals have in campaigning on the right (which they're now moving away from, thankfully). if we're going to be pretentious and pretend we need an explanation for such a small shift, let's not ignore the deficit announcement. but, let's not jump to absurd conclusions either - these are tories coming home, and voters the liberals could have never kept through any sort of difficulty. it takes a lot for them to swing liberal, and very little for them to go back home. it's true that the liberals may have blown the duffy scandal by taking a smart economic position on deficits. but, they could not have won solely on the scandal, anyways. and if the ndp can form a government, the liberals are in a lot of trouble. they have to fight on the other side.

i haven't seen the regional numbers yet. i'm going to guess that the conservatives are mostly up in alberta, and if that's the case then this boost is largely inconsequential. what i want to see are the numbers in ontario.

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/09/11/the-ekos-poll-could-the-refugee-crisis-be-good-for-harper