the ekos analysis is pretty good, although it's hard to get those numbers out of it. he seemed to be implying that he thinks the conservatives were overweighted and the liberals took the full 3.4, minus the bit the greens took.

i'm fully expecting the greens to inch up something like a quarter of a point week over week, steadily, until the election, as traditional ndp voters drop out. a trickle. you probably won't notice it. it will only cost the ndp the election if the liberals can recover their left flank. i think that little bump is real, even if it dips a little next week (.6 is a bit high).

a few weeks ago i was suggesting that the liberals are going to destroy themselves by going out and campaigning on balanced budgets. it's the last thing liberal voters wanted to hear after a decade of harper. they were going to bolt to the ndp. even if mulcair promised to balance budgets, too. it was just a poke-in-the-eye. nauseating, really. deflating...

but, to my surprise, they didn't do that. they took a more economically informed approach. it was what people wanted to hear. and, my argument got pulled out from under itself. by not doing what i thought was going to shoot themselves in the foot, they seem to have buoyed themselves a little. and, it throws a wrench in mulcair's plan.

listen. i don't think the ndp are positioning themselves where they are out of pragmatism. i think mulcair is legitimately to the right of trudeau on most issues. it's consequently not as easy as just flipping a switch back. he's trying to architect a structural change in the party. he has no desire to fight the election on his left.

but, perception and fact are not always the same thing. footage of mulcair literally praising thatcher herself could surface, and it might not alter perception.

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-grenier-polltracker-sep4-1.3216128

Tracker
In summary of your deep analysis at this early stage:

Canadians are sick of Harper, they'll vote Anything But Cons.

Jessica Murray
i don't think we're going to lose our heads over it, though. i'm not going to be able to vote for mulcair. i may not be a majority, but i think i'm measurable.