mario dumont got 31 percent...

i don't know any study that tries to map things. it would be useful. i can use logic to conclude a few things, including that the ndp was necessarily attracting adq support in at least a few places. you can't map the quebec liberals to the federal liberals; a lot of quebec liberals will vote conservative, federally. if you're naive, you could even get close to quebec liberal numbers by simply adding up recent federal liberal and conservative numbers, although that's no doubt wrong [as some are surely voting ndp]. further, you'd expect quite a few adq supporters would support the bloc, so you can't just go back to 2008 and try and sync up pq and bloc totals.

the bloc's strategy seems to suggest that it's internal polling suggests to it that most of it's remaining voters are at least adq-pq swing voters, if not mostly adq voters, otherwise they wouldn't be nailing it so hard. which means that quite a bit of what the conservatives are attracting must be quebec liberals.

it follows that it would be reasonable to suggest that half of adq voters are supporting the bloc, while a quarter are supporting the conservatives and a quarter are supporting the ndp. further, it would be reasonable to suggest that a half of quebec liberal voters are supporting the liberals, while a quarter are supporting the conservatives and a quarter are supporting the ndp. these are *extremely* rough numbers*. yet...

....when i suggested this a few weeks ago, i was thinking about ontario. in quebec? if my calculations are anything close to right, it could be that, when the dust settles, he may have merely shot himself in the foot by pulling in adq support from the ndp at the expense of aligning the provincial and federal liberal vote. if i was stephen harper, the absolute last thing i'd want to do is find a way to align the federal and provincial wings of the liberal party in quebec in voting intentions...

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/10/02/fasts-office-denies-tpp-auto-deal-reached/