the results on tuesday are going to be similar to the results from new york. it wasn't because cruz insulted new yorkers. it's because his policies are considered to be insane by northeasterners, and kasich is...in truth, it's probably just not enough time. if cruz had dropped out, kasich might have been able to take a run. even in a two person race, cruz never had a serious chance of getting to 30%, let alone winning.
the projections throw around the number of 100 delegates for trump on tuesday. i think it's going to be closer to 150. the hope was that kasich could keep trump under 50%, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen.
as for bernie? harsh reality at this point is: don't expect him to win any states at all on the 26th. i would expect him to do better than the polling in maryland due to bias (and that should hold, there, because the rules aren't as strict as new york - and, if you look it up, you'll see the predictions have consistently overestimated the effects of race), but it's not going to be enough. best case scenario is splits everywhere.
you'll note that my path called for near splits on the 26th. i suggested he should be aiming to pick up 50 delegates, mostly in pennsylvania, in order to close the distance to about 100. but, that was built on a win in new york taking him from 200 to 150, rather than a loss taking him from 200 to 250.
it's not a disaster, mathematically - there's enough delegates up on the 26th that he could, in theory, make up 150 and get back on track. but, the polling isn't projecting this.
realistically, he should be hoping to walk out of the 26th with the difference less than 300. and, he probably won't be able to keep it to that.
moving forward, i expect her to win indiana & west virginia by substantial margins - indiana will look like ohio, and west virginia will look like tennessee. the next state he'll have a real chance in will be oregon, but the difference will be nearly 400 delegates by the time he gets there.
i don't like it, either. sorry.
yeah. the media is out to lunch. the republican nomination is over. it's not even close.
trump currently has 847.
conn: 25 (take most)
del: 16 (take all)
mary: 38 (take all)
penn: 71 (take all)
ri: 10 (prop)
that's 160 on tuesday. let's round down to 153, so we can say he has around 1000 after tuesday. that would mean he'd need around 250.
california: 172 (take all)
new jersey: 51 (take all)
that's 220. and, despite what media suggests, california is not in play.
oregon: 28 (prop)
wash: 44 (prop)
nm: 24 (prop)
so, that's 96 proportional. surely, he can average 30% in those states. so, there's your win.
not used:
indiana: 57 (take-all - this is unclear)
wv: 34 (probably trump, but weird rules)
nebraska: 36 (cruz)
montana: 24 (cruz)
south dakota: 29 (cruz)
if he wins indiana and gets 15-20 from wv, he's got more than 1300 delegates. and, that's a realistic target, too.
so, that's done.