scroll down a little.
actual numbers:
clinton - 40
trump - 32
other - 29
but, that's not the headline they want. the headline they want is that clinton is running away with it.
now, we saw this happen recently in canada. the dynamic in canada was an unpopular incumbent (stephen harper) and two other guys that were seen as interchangeable. so, you'd get polls that said something like this:
conservatives - 33
ndp - 29
liberals - 25
undecided - 13
the media would report this as:
conservatives - 38
ndp - 33
liberals - 29
undecided - 0
unfortunately, most statisticians will tell you that this is not wrong. the undecided should distribute.
the thing is that when they asked undecideds who they were willing to consider, something like 90% of them said they'd never consider the conservatives. so, the votes didn't distribute. in the end, that 13% (plus a little more) went entirely to the liberals.
i got into a lot of arguments about this. the crux of my argument was that the data tells us where undecideds are leaning, and they are almost entirely sitting between the ndp and the liberals. in the end, i was right. but, i didn't ever really get the clarity from my opponents that i wanted; it's still not clear to me if they understand what they were doing wrong.
so, now we have a nice big chunk of 30% undecided. that's a giant number. we're not sure, yet, whether there will be two or three or four major candidates. but, we can state two things clearly:
1) the large number of undecideds is not a consequence of voters seeing two options as interchangeably acceptable (implying the need for the candidates to define themselves better), but the result of voters disliking both candidates equally. so, you're looking at upwards of 30% of voters that are saying they want another option. that's unheard of in the united states.
2) while it seems like both of the major candidates are being affected by this, it seems like trump is being more affected.
so, is clinton leading by double digits? maybe. but, she should call gary up and buy him a beer - she's not winning so much as he's losing.
that's not something for her to celebrate or get complacent about, as it could (and probably will) change very quickly as trump aligns himself with the republican consensus.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0YP2EX