so, what are the polls *actually* at in the us election right now?

we all know it's a two-party system, so that's how the pollsters work. but, this is what they're *actually* picking up.

1) clinton - 40%
2) neither - 30%
3) trump - 30%

trump is actually running in third right now, behind "they're both unelectable".

if you needle them a little further, and even the staunchest big tenter *must* with those numbers, you get:

1) democrats (clinton) - 40%
2) republicans (trump) - 30%
3) none of the above - 15%
4) libertarians (johnson) - 10%
5) greens (stein) - 5%

so, this election is very live and currently very much defined by voter dissatisfaction. obviously, the smart money right now is on clinton. but, the actual public mood right now is that people are looking for a way out of that inevitability.

the numbers are volatile. anything could happen. the libertarians will probably not catch the republicans - the religious right is too powerful, and they're more likely to stay home than swing to the libertarians. but, they might, if trump can't keep his leg out of his mouth. i think the greens have a better chance of splitting on the left, as sanders supporters get collectively less and less interested in clinton as she moves further and further to the right.

by the end of it, the spectrum could shift in such a way that pulls the republicans right off of it and allows the democrats to emerge victorious as the new moderate right; that would be the creation of a new "party system", which is something that happens in american politics.

but, the headlines are warped. they're telling you clinton is headed for an easy win, by ignoring the full spectrum. in the end, it might work out. don't count on it.

the truth is that they're both running in the 30s, and trump is running on the low end of that - very close to 30.