Thursday, December 1, 2016

the americans had driven down the price of oil primarily to hurt the russians, and also to hurt the iranians. so, is this a reset in relations? is this trump giving putin a hand? i doubt it. more likely is that opec is giving trump the finger. this was always a possibility (i suggested trump would keep oil prices low, unless he pisses off opec), but i didn't think it would actually happen - and certainly not this fast.

this benefits the canadian dollar, which means it hurts exports, too. although we'll see how that pans out with nafta. it could be a net benefit.

it benefits other oil exporters, of course - including russia.

it harms america, mostly.

the deep state fucked up.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/nov/30/oil-price-opec-cut-in-output-saudi-arabia-deal-market

i mean, the guy runs a campaign based on hating on muslims and latin-speakers because he thinks they're weak and despised and inferior. but, newsflash: it's muslims and latin-speakers that control the primary lever in the economy, which is energy prices. and, now he's got some 'splainin' to do.

they fucked up.

also, the shale oil theory is bunk. the saudis know that shale oil supplies are very limited, that their own supplies are much greater and that they'd be better off letting the americans run through what they have as quickly as possible. there's just a concerted effort in the american press to distract from any exploration of the geopolitical explanations of things. americans are supposed to believe that america is the unquestioned hegemon, and everybody else just does what it says.

consider the iran deal, for example.

look as hard as you may, you will not find any source in the american press that explains that russia and america have competing interests in iran. the entire narrative is that iran is subservient to american demands, and can either do what america says or face the consequences. the idea that iran may prefer to deal with russia instead, or that america may lose iran to russian influence, does not exist, anywhere.

there was a lot of literature about "who lost china". nobody asks who lost iran. because the premise that it could be lost is not admitted.

the result is that the business press usually bases it's reporting on false premises, and people end up with skewed concepts of what is happening.

the reason that oil prices went down in 2014 was to punish russia for it's invasion of crimea. it was a part of the sanctions regime. and, that sanctions regime relied on a very careful network of alliances that is apparently unraveling very quickly.

there was a series on the bbc a few years ago.

i think it may be sort of prophetic. bush II was in a lot of ways a replay of reagan, whereas obama was indeed somewhat like carter in the sense that he was kind of a republican front. and, now nixon has returned in the embodiment of trump.

can mike pence chew gum and walk at the same time?


maybe there's an upside. maybe there's a civil rights battle coming.

or, maybe civil rights are set to reverse in the next cycle...