Wednesday, March 15, 2017

the chinese can't reasonably talk about dominating a trade agreement that includes canada and mexico. the americans can project that kind of power towards asia, but the chinese are a long ways away from projecting that kind of power towards america.

even talk of the chinese dominating japan is absurd. in a real sense, what the tpp did was reconstruct the japanese empire - sort of how like the eu has reconstructed a german-dominated europe. as the americans have delegated running europe to the germans, the tpp was meant to delegate control of asia to the japanese.

but, what the chinese can do is talk about essentially absorbing countries like vietnam into it's sphere of interest - at the expense of japanese ambitions. and, that's of course what the deal was intended to prevent and what is now free to happen, with it gone. and, where a strong tpp could have prevented a war between japan and china by the projection of american power, the withdrawal of america from the region could very well embolden the chinese to the point where conflict is now inevitable.

i've approached what trump is doing as irrational, but, even so, at the least, if trump was the master negotiator then he would have sought something like a deal to exchange american withdrawal from southeast asia for chinese withdrawal in south america, or perhaps even asia. i see no evidence of this: he just gave away the farm, for nothing. and, this could potentially be game over for american influence in the region.

sadly, the republicans will likely spin the situation as proof that they were right all along. it's really an absurd point of failure.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/14/china-south-korea-join-tpp-members-in-trade-talks.html