Tuesday, January 23, 2018

so, they signed the tpp.

i would have rather seen a bilateral deal with japan...

why didn't they sign it previously? well, you'd think it probably had something to do with wanting to wait to see what was happening in the united states. a canadian entrance into the tpp could have severely complicated nafta talks.

and, the timing of signing on to the deal is no doubt informed by recent events around the nafta negotiation. that may seem ominous, but i think you can also read it the other way - the liberals may have calculated that trump will not be able to re-open nafta in the face of congressional opposition by 2024, and that these talks will rather go on until trump leaves or is removed from the white house. they may also have calculated that the united states will return to the tpp in 2022 or 2026.

the standard narrative is going to be that it's a pre-emptive reaction to the imminent collapse of nafta, but the facts would hardly uphold it. two-way trade is really only going to exist with japan and perhaps australia; the rest of the countries are going to act as...

trump thinks that the tpp is a backdoor for china. it's crazy. the tpp is the exact opposite: it's the reconstruction of the wartime japanese empire, to act as a counter-balance to contain the chinese with. so, the bulk of these countries exist in the deal to provide natural resources and labour to japanese multinationals, who will then sell the products in north america - or at least in canada. the labour provisions in the agreement are a joke, really.

then, you've got singapore for money laundering and other banking functions.

how is that going to replace nafta? the japanese market for beef is not that powerful, although the alberta farming lobby no doubt pushed hard for the deal.

it makes more sense to think that canada has made the choice to act independently of trump, for the reason that it doesn't have much faith in trump to chart a path, and rather has better reason to think the future will be designed by his opponents.

jagmeet singh must cut his beard.