Thursday, February 8, 2018

i want to clarify something.

the end of quantitative easing shouldn't produce a single crash, so much as it should produce a series of stutters. the market will have good days and bad days over the next few months, but the trajectory will be downwards, until all of the fake money that was pumped into the system finds  it's way out of it.

you can think of the stock market like a balloon. what quantitative easing does is it allows the balloon to fill up. what ending quantitative easing does is it lets the air out. unfortunately, however, a lot of otherwise intelligent people think that if you blow the balloon up, it will stay inflated, even after you remove quantitative easing. this is really an article of faith, and very much at the crux of the term market fundamentalist.

the balloon will never hold air. it will always deflate. so, if you want a full balloon, you must provide a constant flow of air. there is no "equilibrium".

but, i'm not going to make a personal prediction. i'm just going to point out what the expected effects of ending quantitative easing would be:

1) you would have a delayed reaction, to start, as the last bit of easing would need to take some time to work through the system.
2) as the effects of the end of easing become felt, you would slowly see what amounts to a simple divestment of money in the market. this money doesn't show up anywhere else. it just goes into accounts, and out to pay "bills", in whatever abstraction.
3) eventually, this divestment becomes recessionary, as the money slowly dries up.
4) there is no equilibrium point to reach, in the modern economy. there is simply rock bottom, when debt pyramids begin unravelling to expose there's nothing there.

so, in the end, you go back to easing - after you've stunted the economy for however long you've decided to stunt it for..

i don't know how long this takes. but, it's not a situation where you expect the balloon to burst, so much as it is a situation where you expect the balloon to slowly lose it's air. that's because the stock market devaluation, in this context, is an effect rather than a cause. the economy doesn't suffer because of the market crash; rather, the market crashes because the economy isn't generating enough investment, which is what you need the easing for.

it's access to capital. you need capital for capitalism, or it just stops working.

so, if you own stocks, what do you do?

you wait. and, you resolve to sell at the end of the next cycle, when you hear the announcement coming

jagmeet singh must cut his beard.