again: forum is consistently doing something in it's polling that i think needs to increase it's margin of error. it might just be the ivr system. i don't know. but, they seem to have a margin of error that's closer to 10% than 3%. i don't know why that is, it's just how the numbers tend to work out.

i don't think that the liberals got a bump from the budget, and i don't think it disappeared over the last week, or whatever it was. that would suggest that the voters are currently volatile, and i don't think that's true;  rather, i think that their polling methods are quite volatile, and that's really what you're seeing in their results, which tend to fluctuate all over the place.

with everything considered - the no doubt large undecided vote, along with the inherent tory bias in phone polling - i have little reason to think that the tories are running higher than the mid 30s. it would be useful if they published undecideds and hang-ups, but they can stand on their record in not doing so, in the end. at least, if they tell me the undecideds i can explain why they're not as wrong as they might appear; if they don't tell me the undecideds, i have to just point out that it's unclear how many people are undecided.

but, i will say this again: firming ndp support in ontario is the thing that the liberals need to be most concerned about. and, their current tactics of mimicking the ndp are predictably going to backfire on them. any rational voter, right now, is just going to see the liberals as ndp-lite, and opt to vote for the real thing, instead.