she seems to be doing this correctly, but when is she going to get that traction?

i don't believe that ford is running in the high 30s. i think he's running in the mid to low 30s - about where harper was running. the problem right now is that the liberal base in ontario doesn't seem to want to budge below about 25%, and that doesn't give the ndp a lot of room to play with. when you take the greens into consideration, her maximum polling potential, if she swings every single undecided, ends up in the mid 30s. more likely is that you end up with this horrid three-way split, where they're all in the low 30s......

the vote could still fall in place nicely. ford is going to win some seats in toronto, but he's going to have a harder time in the suburbs, and that's going to balance things out. the ndp are almost certainly to be uncompetitive in the suburbs. so, you could conceivably end up in this situation where the liberals win a lot of upper class seats, the ndp win a lot of urban seats and the conservatives win the balance - and lose the election, while winning the popular vote.

or, it could fall in place terribly, and ford could sweep based on a total split.

but, remember this: the conservatives cannot win a minority in ontario. the liberals lean too far to the left. a conservative minority means a liberal-ndp coalition government. and, that means the conservatives have to be polling a lot higher than i think they're actually polling in order to actually take power...

given that a coalition may be the most likely outcome right now, there are a couple of ridings where the ndp & liberals may want to choose not to compete against each other in. not all, or even most. but a couple...

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/reevely-leaving-liberals-for-dead-andrea-horwath-out-lefts-kathleen-wynne-with-a-smile-on-her-face