i think i posted something like this a few weeks ago, but what's my projection for the 2019 election?

there's some signalling that the liberals want to run on islam, which is a complete misunderstanding of the 2015 election - but one that the liberals have repeatedly broadcast that they hold to. they think they won because they stood up for accommodation rights in quebec, which is empirically incoherent. trudeau got lucky; the country didn't want to give harper another mandate, and the ndp, against all good sense, ran a blowhard fiscal conservative with a beard, allowing the liberals to avoid the split. we can't be allowing our election narratives to be defined by these awful tory media outlets like the globe and mail....

it might seem stupid on first glance to try and frame the narrative as christianity v islam, which is exactly what they seem to want to do, unless you buy into this fucked up narrative that seems to be dominant in the core of the party. christianity may be dying a slow and painful death, but even the least generous numbers are going to have christians outnumbering muslims in this country by at least 10:1. you only run on this if you think that the fastest growing and rising demographic, secularist atheists, are driven more by an animus against christians than they are by rational thought, and that they're going to feel some kind of imperative to stand up for muslims against christians. it's a tactic that insults the intelligence of voters.

if they run on this, they're just going to tune out young people, who are going to vote for third parties or stay home.

but, more concerning to me is that it broadcasts that there is an increasingly powerful faction in the liberal party that sees the european heritage of canada as something that needs to be abolished - as something that belongs to the past. i'm not going to stand up for christianity, exactly. but, i'll fight pretty hard for enlightenment values, and see good reason to push back against another abrahamic perversion. what's frustrating to me is the options that are available: in an election being framed as between islam and christianity, with no discernible third party of mention, am i going to have to write-in science?

so, i'm quite certain that i'm not going to be voting for the liberals, this time around. and, i'm also quite certain that i'm not going to be voting for the ndp - who will almost certainly win this riding fairly easily. to me, the decision in front of me is whether or not the green party candidate is going to be able to convince me to get up and vote, or if i'm going to sit this one out.

and, i actually think that my disillusion is going to be defining.

i don't think the fundamental nature of the last election has changed, which is this dramatic 20 point swing on the left. i don't see much evidence to suggest that harper will outpoll scheer in terms of absolute numbers - he may even do a little worse. but, if trudeau is unable to get people to actually vote for him, he could end up in freefall due to apathy.

it's still early. but, the volatility on the left has the potential to produce a wild outcome - if only somebody would step up and actually try to appeal to it.