ok.

so, it seems like cory booker is a black democrat (tm), whereas kamala harris just a democrat who happens to be dark-skinned.

it's too early, still. but, harris - a californian elitist - may have a hard-time competing with a guy that knows how to sing in the choir; don't be surprised if she's actually barely competitive in the south. the flip side is that harris may end up destroying booker in the bigger liberal cities like chicago, new york, detroit.

the left's chance to capitalize on this may rely on harris' ability to cut deeply enough into booker's lead in the south, to force him into what are pyrrhic victories, while having no chance of winning, herself.

i know the media likes her chances, but she's dominated. if she ends up with booker running strong in the south, and a left liberal running strong in the north, she gets squeezed out.

i guess her best chance is to try to run as the leftist candidate. that might not be believable on it's face, but if the left doesn't show up, that's her path.

booker, meanwhile needs to stop her from killing them both off.

the south may surprise me, though. i know that the demographics are changing, and the traditional church circuit is becoming less important. i couldn't imagine that this is the election where urban secularism finally overpowers the black church, but it could expose some weaknesses. the best case scenario is probably that it just hopelessly splits the vote for both of them.

i don't expect warren to make it iowa. and i don't expect biden to actually run.