you can easily put together the narrative.....

trudeau won in 2015 by getting a lot of young people out to vote for the first time, and out of some combination of a desire to change the world and to get high without breaking the law, in whatever order.  he then broke every one of his promises to left-leaning voters, but kept his promise to let people get high. so, this mass of young voters is abandoning him for something else.

if he wants to repeat, he'll need to find some way to regain the attention of the kids that voted for him last time and find some way to tap into the next group of kids coming up. but, given his total abandonment of almost everything he ran on, this is going to be a hard sell on both counts.

and, he actually seems to realize that, opting instead to try and win over conservative voters by pushing a harperesque free market messaging and pandering to religious groups, thereby abandoning his own base, which he may have decided he doesn't really like, after all. but, this is a recipe for disaster - one we've seen too many times, already.

trudeau will almost certainly fail at convincing right of centre votes to switch to him. but, he's already committed to it.

in the mean time, the question of how badly they lose reduces to how much of their base they can keep from wandering - and whether they even realize how much trouble they're actually in.

i want a liberal minority, followed by a caucus revolt and leadership review. but, a conservative majority is not impossible if his base, which he has abandoned, just stays home.