i'm not going to have time for geopolitics in the near future, but to tie up a few loose ends.

the amount of nonsense around venezuela right now is just...

so, the russians stepped in and that's the end of that. if only khruschev had the technology to get the bombs to cuba before anybody noticed, right? whatever you think of what they (the trump administration) were up to, the incompetence here is just baffling.

and, now trump has got this thing all wrong. what he needs to do is find a nice little island resort to invade. like grenada. or maybe the falklands. here's an interesting idea: why doesn't he just invade puerto rico?

the more i'm looking at what happened in the israeli election, the more i'm wondering if the coup wasn't to get rid of the new right party to ease a bit of pressure on netanyahu. as bad as netanyahu is, it's the parties to his right that are the bigger problem. the russians just want to stop the superfluous israeli attacks...

but, if the purpose of shifting the conflict from ukraine to syria was to give the russians some space, the american withdrawal and subsequent shift of the conflict from syria to venezuela largely neutralizes russian motives for further interference. if the americans are truly leaving, the russians may not find the goal of reestablishing syrian sovereignty to be all that pressing, any longer. so, you may instead see the russians succumb to some of their own corrupt instincts; s-400s for all. well, it might be good for deterrence. or, it might start an arms race...

we'll have to see how this pans out. but, the set of conflicts that has defined the last twenty years may be undergoing a transformation, and the next set of conflicts may not be clear, yet.