what states are really in play in the rust belt?

well, it's hard to understand how minnesota was ever in play to begin with. the democrats can certainly win minnesota.

the democrats are going to need some help from the new governor in wisconsin to reverse the mess that scott walker created in terms of voting rights, but wisconsin is certainly in play - if that happens. if there is not fast, decisive action on that front, wisconsin could be more of a challenge than you think.

iowa is winnable in theory, but it's a murky task. i think it's driven by a demographic conflict, where you have a lot of students and a lot of farmers. the traditional tactic is to go to iowa and talk about corn subsidies, but the democrats probably actually need to appeal to the youth vote if they want to win in iowa. that's probably actually why obama did well there in his first term, which would indicate that it is particularly winnable for sanders. it's actually probably about getting kids out to vote.

kansas is urbanizing, while missouri is collapsing. it's probably more of a question of local politics. i've been arguing for years that missouri should be seen as the bellweather state that it used to be - that a competitive democrat should be able to win in missouri, and easily. but, there's some recent evidence that my logic around missouri may be better applied to kansas, as the state's financial center shifts west, and the bulk of missouri ends up swallowed by arkansas. this discussion may end up better applied to the next cycle, but the evidence right now may suggest that the democrats' traditional attempts to win back missouri may be better applied to kansas.

so long as chicago is chicago, illinois will not be in play. but note that detroit is no longer detroit, and michigan is now in play. things can change, but don't expect it to happen in 2020.

then, you tun into indiana. while obama did win in indiana, it was some kind of weird fluke; the republicans have consistently held indiana since lincoln. it didn't even realign in the 60s; this is probably the most republican state in the country. if the democrats end up winning indiana, it will be as a symptom of a sweep and nothing more. it is really not in play and really never has been.

likewise, i don't actually think that ohio is a swing state. ohio is a red state. the democrats should not sink themselves trying to win in ohio. they have a better chance in virginia and a better chance in north carolina.

michigan is winnable but, like wisconsin, there needs to be some active effort put into undoing the suppression tactics put in place by rick snyder. if democrats don't address this, they could be in for another nasty surprise.

and, the same thing needs to be said of pennsylvania: the democrats should easily win here, but they need to undo the suppression tactics....