Tuesday, January 14, 2020

i would not support or vote for him, but i would clearly still prefer sanders win the nomination.

i don't think he has a serious chance, i think that if biden fails then his support moves to a younger, centrist candidate like buttigieg or, less likely, klobuchar. 

but, you're going to hear calls from the pseudo-left for warren to stand down to avoid splitting the vote, and these should be muted. it is probably true that warren was sent by the cabal to split the vote - that's an accurate analysis. but, her support is eating into biden's far more, and if she drops out it will help biden far more than it will help sanders.

if you're a sanders supporter, you want warren to stick around and bleed that upper class support from biden.

but, it just underscores the problems with bernie, right now. as these candidates drop, biden's numbers are going to come up, not fall down. it looks competitive right now, but it's kind of an illusion - the conditions bernie needs to stay competitive really aren't sustainable.

i'm not willing to call it for biden just yet, as i think he can still fuck up, or fall over and be unable to get up. but, bernie will be leapfrogged if that happens....