Wednesday, January 22, 2020

so, the claim is that bernie is up substantively with white voters, and apparently at the expense of biden.

that's not getting past my bullshit detector - it sounds more like cnn trying to start a race war. so, i'd like to see a pattern develop, before i comment.

if it starts to firm up? well, that's how sanders wins. but, it's not clear where it's coming from all of a sudden, and i might rather suggest that the trends recently are suggestive of bernie losing white support, not gaining it.

what i'll say is that i'm not willing to buy into the narrative that biden is going to do well amongst white union voters. i might actually suspect that biden is likely to be seen as kind of elitist and upper class. i mean, maybe he'd like to imagine himself through those filters, but reality's a bitch, sometimes, and i don't think it's actually true...

...so who are all these white people going to vote for, then?

if neither warren nor buttigieg can get traction, the choice reduces to bernie or....trump. bernie ends up as the default choice....

but, i think that evidence for this is weak up to this point. bernie's focus has been on the south, which has been what has allowed warren and buttigieg to inch up in the first place. if he had been in iowa the whole time....but he wasn't....and i'm not convinced he can make up the ground...

so, this is my initial reaction to this: i think cnn is stirring the pot, in a way intended to create a racial conflict. it's a poison pill, basically. careful....