i find these results believable.
this cycle, sanders and biden have tended to have trouble matching their polling (it's much worse for biden) and buttigieg has tended to overperform. so, this might suggest something like
sanders 25+%
buttigieg 20%-
biden 15% - maybe
nobody else viable
on the first ballot, with a slightly closer spread on the second.
also note that the early ballots are preferential. i like that. and, it introduces a level of unpredictability into the race, as these are voters that may not have participated in caucuses in years past.