so, the numbers are in and klobuchar has indeed managed to stay over 19%, to my bafflement.
i'm not sure if i explicitly stated it or not, but i figured the narrative around klobuchar would be around whether she was viable or not - that she might get barely over 15%, if she was especially lucky, but that the culmination of the polling suggested she'd probably end up at something more like 13%. the polling also suggested that buttigieg would end up somewhere around 20%, although i'm less surprised that he overshot it, because he had some concrete reasons for momentum.
i was not personally impressed by klobuchar's debate performance at all; as mentioned, it came off as the last gasp of a dying candidate. and, this result itself hardly wins her the race - it may be that the last gasp was more like a last wheeze, and she's going to hack it out for a bit before she keels over.
sanders, on the other hand underperformed relative to most of the polling, although i sort of saw that coming - i pegged him around 25%.
when you have that combination of factors - the candidate popular with the young crowd underperforming, and both of the candidates that are popular with the older crowd overperforming by roughly the same amount, 4-5% - chances are that the thing you got wrong was actually turnout. and, indeed, turnout wasn't very impressive.
so, was there a surge in klobuchar support? she got a bump, clearly. but, the reason the polls undershot her by the same amount that they undershot buttigieg would be that they overestimated turnout by sanders supporters. and, that is where the inflation comes out of the numbers.
if sanders had gotten the vote out, she would have ended up closer to 15%, and buttigieg would have ended up closer to 20%, as sanders got closer to 30%.
but, he didn't.
is it fair for buttigieg supporters to blame klobuchar for costing him the win, then? well, it's kind of entitled, don't you think? it would be just as valid to flip the argument over.
what is true, though, is that the competition between these candidates allowed sanders to win, even on a weak night for him, and that if the moderate wing wants a win then it's going to need to figure that out.
if.
right...
so, was there a surge in klobuchar support? she got a bump, clearly. but, the reason the polls undershot her by the same amount that they undershot buttigieg would be that they overestimated turnout by sanders supporters. and, that is where the inflation comes out of the numbers.
if sanders had gotten the vote out, she would have ended up closer to 15%, and buttigieg would have ended up closer to 20%, as sanders got closer to 30%.
but, he didn't.
is it fair for buttigieg supporters to blame klobuchar for costing him the win, then? well, it's kind of entitled, don't you think? it would be just as valid to flip the argument over.
what is true, though, is that the competition between these candidates allowed sanders to win, even on a weak night for him, and that if the moderate wing wants a win then it's going to need to figure that out.
if.
right...