the deaths look like a plateau and rapid fall, at this point. there's ways to analyze that to determine if there was really a distorted peak or not.
the hospitalizations - like most of the other metrics - went straight up and down.
hey, we're all guessing, still. we'll need antibody testing to prove the case, one way or the other. but, there is a very strong argument right now that this thing just ripped through new york without a passing concern to our behaviour. unlike the governor, i don't get paid for this, so i'm not going to repeat myself.
three caveats.
one - reporting on sundays seems to be a little lower. so, don't be surprised if you get a very steep drop tomorrow, followed by a small increase on tuesday and a return to the general shape on wednesday.
two - we're still waiting to see if we get a boost from easter. we should be able to indirectly estimate immunity & exposure levels from the data we see next week, regardless, and see which hypothesis it's most consistent with.
three - the data has only begun to be reported daily recently, but deaths in nursing homes seem to be ticking up, as total deaths fall.
i think we're very close to this thing falling down to background levels. for now, please continue to keep the weak inside and away from danger.