how do you understand this apparent contradiction, where social distancing increases the number of deaths?

i posted this picture back on pi day:

if sweden followed the red curve, it saw an immediate spike, but should now see almost no deaths, as the virus is no longer being carried. that means there's still a lot of vulnerable people out there, but the virus is no longer finding their way to them.

everybody else followed the blue curve, which saw smaller number of deaths to start but, ultimately, higher levels of spread, due to lower immunity. this means that more vulnerable people - twice as many, according to the (conceptual) calculation of the area under the curve - are likely to end up sick and die.

i know this is counter-intuitive, but don't listen to me, look at the data.