it's not like i've been disagreeing with the narrative. i expected biden to win pennsylvania and am not pushing back on the point. but, the reality is that trump has been ahead for 24 hours, now. solid. it's hard to look you in the eye and say "biden will win, for sure" when the fact of the matter is that trump's been ahead from the start, however tentatively.

but, the margin is actually coming down, now.

that said, if you agree that pennsylvania is likely to flip, how can you be so sure about arizona?

you can't.

unless you're not so sure about pennsylvania, after all.

the fact that this is still dragging is a huge problem, regardless of the projections - it's going to be close, and it wasn't supposed to be. it's when these things get very close that issues arise.