this is horrific.

hts are bloodthirsty terrorists opposed by 80-90% of the syrian public, which fully backs assad and vehemently opposes jihadist rule. hts is also a proxy of the turkish government.

for the turks to arm and train these barbarians and send them into syria like a mercenary group in order to invade and pacify, and then absurdly claim that assad is oppressing his own people, when the truth is that the russians then have to come in to protect the population from the turkish-backed terrorists, is outrageous, but it is the level of propaganda being spewed by western media around this war for years, now.

i don't know if trump is going to actually shift direction here or not. i strongly doubt he understand the subtleties or what nominating gabbard actually means; he's just rewarding a loyalist. however, the entity that is at war with his own people is not assad, it's erdogan, and the country that's in need of regime change, by a coup if necessary, is the turks.

as mentioned, it would be nice if this turkish mercenary group could remove hezbollah from syria, first. i would just get out of their way and clean up the mess after. the west, however, should be looking at the long run, and it is more leaders like assad that want a western style democracy and want to tilt westwards, not less.

syria is more like lebanon than iraq, but it's somewhere in between. they don't want to be ruled out of the back of a koran by islamic thugs, they want something broadly european in government, and the only party offering that is assad. that is why assad, despite his failings, commands massive levels of popular support in syria.

https://apnews.com/article/syria-insurgents-aleppo-iran-iraq-militia-12341a6c15a772e207a1b5513c11f8fd

gaza already looks something like hell, but i actually agree with trump's basic position.

the us-israel position from day one should have always been to reverse the negotiation process by threatening to obliterate gaza unless they release the hostages immediately, rather than trying to negotiate.

assad is not aligned with hezbollah or iran, but syria has become a russian protectorate and in the process has become unable to remove hezbollah. the israeli strikes on hezbollah are in assad's long term interests and he no doubt is in full support of them.

the capitalist disinformation around syria is tremendous and has been since the initial bullshit claim that assad attacked a peaceful demonstration, when he was bombing saudi-backed isis rebels.

what happened in syria (which is a military junta that the russians have taken control of since about 2015 or so) is that assad actually designed a democratic constitution and was going to put it up for a referendum, and the saudis vetoed it by launching a western-backed invasion. remember that the united states cannot tolerate democracy in the middle east, which makes them a great ally of the saudis; assad threatened to allow democracy in a state that is actually secular and has historically had a mix of christians and muslims and that got him marked for death.

assad's father was actually an ally of saddam hussein and syria was aligned against iran in a series of wars in the 20th century.

when the turks realized the saudis were going into syria, they had to push back because syria is a buffer state on the turkish border. the turks do not want a direct border with the saudis, they want some space. that, and the turks figure that syria has a long history tied to constantinople, and not much of one tied to mecca. the turks, somewhat correctly, would consider syria in it's sphere, not in the arab sphere.

what developed out of that initial conflict between the saudis and turks over syria became a complicated proxy war and, when it slowed down, the iranian proxy of hezbollah wandered into the mess, to nobody's wishes. everybody wants hezbollah out, even the russians.

we'll have to see how this develops, but my initial perception is that the turks and israelis made a deal for turkey to enter the ongoing war on the side of israel by invading northern syria, which will also create a problem for the russians in ukraine. israel cannot conduct a ground war in syria, but turkey can. ukraine and syria are actually the same war; this actually becomes a war between russia and turkey.

the russians might want to step back and let the turks clear hezbollah out before launching a counter-offensive, which would be assad's preferred outcome. the kurds will be sitting and waiting to come in if required.

i want trump to try to pry assad away from russia and realign syria towards the west, then tell the saudis to back off and let syria be free to design it's own government, but that is unlikely to happen given turkey's nato membership and saudi influence in washington. we will instead be told lies about assad, like we were about saddam hussein.

assad's father was a tyrant, but the younger assad, who was not groomed for power, is a mild-mannered figurehead that grew up in britain. he has western inclinations. these should be leveraged.

we get a cm of snow in december and the meteorologists think climate change is over. the depth of resistance to reality is baffling.

as i suggested, the storm track has been pushed to the north. the detroit-quebec corridor used to get nailed by snow in la nina. growing up in ottawa, i remember 50 foot snow banks and trudging to school in the blizzard. that just happened in thunder bay, instead, while i think it's going to be raining most of this week in ottawa.

it's actually very mild here in windsor, with temperatures hovering around freezing, and small amounts of rain in the forecast.

what trudeau just did is equivalent to walking into a tiger cage and asking the tiger not to eat you.

it's valuable to compare the outcomes.

mexico called trump and told him to fuck off and it looks like he did. trudeau comes to trump and begs like a pathetic slave and the result is that trump told him he's going to get hit.

the canadian government is very stupid, and that's no doubt what trump deduced. trump is a bully. all bullies seek victims that are weak. we advertised weakness to the bully. 

the most basic rule with bullies is that you have to stand up to them, which is what mexico did, which was the smart approach. we cowered to the bully, like fools, and he punched us in the face.

we need a government willing to stand up to donald trump. that's how you deal with him, and then he folds like a cheaply constructed hotel, like most bullies do.

the other thing to keep in mind is that canada has more to steal than mexico does. canadians think we have "shared values", but that's not what trump sees. trump sees easily plunderable wealth that can be stolen with minimal effort. what the mexicans have is labour to exploit. it's not the same thing.

we need to get our heads out of our asses and stop with the fantasy about platitudes and friendship and deal with the reality of an aggressive actor declaring war on us, before trump pulls the heads out and sticks his cock in.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/30/justin-trudeau-donald-trump-mar-a-lago