the analysis here is not bad, even if it's coming from a different ideological space. it's a lot of the same things i've been saying.

i think putin's primary concern is the naval base, not pan-slavism. that's actually probably lucky for the west. there are plenty of pan-slavics in russia, and he may in the end be replaced by one. but he himself seems to be intellectually above that.

it's more the line being crossed that i'm drawing attention to. i've referred to a "poland moment" in the past, where russia would have to reverse it's policy of appeasing the americans. this might be it. and the americans don't seem to have expected it.

....because the obama administration is not composed of particularly intelligent people. that much is now very clear. as a judge of character, obama has been remarkably bad. which is a flaw that seems to resonate in his own character. a comedy of errors.

the russians will need to be directly provoked to expand the operation beyond the military base. and you have to keep in mind that this isn't an annexation. it's just a protective process. i've yet to see any reason to think the russians are proposing to pull the region out of the ukraine. i've just seen a lot of concern that they need to protect their existing control over the region.

so, will putin "seize" donetsk and kharkiv next? not likely, as of now. but if american belligerence stomps the wrong toes, or the new ukrainian parliament passes the wrong bill, then it becomes a feasible turn of events.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/next-putin-will-seize-donetsk-and-kharkiv/495463.html