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". . . with the Conservatives winning between 92 and 132."
It is truly disheartening to think that there still people who support this crooked, fascist regime.
Jessica Murray
they have roughly 100 safe rural seats. i'm starting to think they may poll around 20% in the end - and in that scenario i'd *still* give them around 100 seats.
meanwhile, the liberals could poll at 30% and win 20 seats if the ndp are ahead of them across the board.
it's just how the vote is distributed. if you want to take this party down, you have to find a way to compete in the sticks.
www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-grenier-polls-aug28-1.3206184
i wouldn't be surprised if you see the greens push ahead of the conservatives in the *next* election, but it requires two pre-conditions:
1) the ndp has to break it's base, pushing them into the greens & liberals. i think this is almost a given. if mulcair hangs on long enough to form the first ndp government, it will almost certainly be the last ndp government. this is the overriding trend in areas where there are three parties - they get one chance, they prove themselves conservatives and they obliterate themselves. mulcair has a lot in common with bob rae.
2) the conservatives need to get stuck in an existential struggle with the christian right, which will force them to swing right on social issues. of course, the party heads will seek to avoid this at all costs. but, if they do poorly enough in this election, they will have no choice. they've been told to be moderate, and wait it out. if they get beaten down to third this election, that strategy will have clearly failed.
in such a scenario, the conservatives would move back into their previous place on the spectrum before the tory-reform merger as a minor party on the far right. this is the place in the spectrum that the social credit party occupied for many, many years. this party has been all but forgotten, but it was an integral part of the canadian spectrum for 40 years. it didn't disappear so much as it eclipsed the pcs in importance. but, it created a lot of confusion as to what the merger was - it's inherently unstable and must eventually fall apart.
the greens would move into the space the ndp used to occupy.
and, here's the counter-intuitive part: the ndp would move into the space the pcs used to occupy.
only the liberals would remain in place on the spectrum.
of course, harper will no doubt be gone by then. it will be left to somebody that is more socially conservative, like jason kenney, to deal with the resulting mess.
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Cayyce
Not only is it not working, this negative strategy and "nice hair though" commercials couldn't be a bigger disaster and are driving voters away in droves especially women.
Jessica Murray
it's ok - they'll bring them back with a puppet show that inconceivably suggests that trudeau is some kind of hopeless alcoholic. where'd that even come from?
you'd think they'd have learned their lesson with the attacks on chretien's face. trudeau needs to be waiting, tactically, to pounce.
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Cayyce
And because these polls rely on traditional ways of contacting the electorate, specifically land lines, they're samples are more than likely to be biased in favour of the Conservative so it's potentially even worse than it currently seems.
Jessica Murray
it's kind of complicated, but it seems to balance itself out relatively well. they weight the results via the census, so if they get less young people in actual results they inflate their weight before they publish. that said, there's a growing consensus that they need to stop weighting under 34s relative to the census because they vote in lesser numbers. most phone firms claim they're doing that now....