i can't see them settling somewhere in the low to mid 20s. the strongest argument they have for voting for them is that they're in power. as soon as that begins to erode, the whole stack of cards falls apart. and, you have to understand that the conservative party *is* a stack of cards.

they've never polled under 27 since confederation [if you add up reform & pc support in the 90s]. it's stretching credulity.

if they can keep the glue together, they'll poll closer to 30. i've changed my electoral predictions downwards, but i'm forcing myself to do it - i still can't really actually believe it.

if they start to unravel by consistently polling in the mid-20s polling, they will plunge towards the teens - because they will start to leak on all sides.

liberals won't vote for the tories to keep the ndp out, or at least not in measurable numbers. but, conservatives will vote for the liberals to keep the ndp out - because the conservative propaganda is surreal.

and, if they're no longer seen as seriously vying for power, the argument they've been pushing on their base for years - "patience, minions" - will not just erode, but evaporate. the floodgates will open, and you'll see movement out of the party to their right.

see, you have to understand that stephen harper is a very bad reflection of the people that fund the party. they've got all this money, right? it's not really coming from corporations, like the left likes to imagine. we've got laws against that. it's coming from private citizens that have an agenda for right-wing social policies. the single, biggest driver is abortion. that's not fantasy. it's the blunt truth.

now, suppose you're one of these donors that's been giving this party thousands of dollars a year since 1985 for the sole reason that you want action on abortion. you could very well have sunk upwards of $50,000 into this party. and, what did you get for this? absolutely nothing. you're bound to be irritated, and not likely to want to play this game of pretending to be moderate in order to reposition the spectrum anymore.

so, it's this one way or another thing. they will perform around their historical floor if they can get the perception out that they're still in it. but they can't hold themselves together if they're not competitive - they will collapse into whence they came.

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-grenier-polls-aug28-1.3206184