i'd hold off on this. quebec can swing on a dime, and will if mulcair says exactly the wrong right-leaning thing at exactly the wrong time. if the liberals are polling at 20-25% (and some recent polls put them closer to 30-35), then that's comparable to their numbers from 2008 and could actually see them more than double their seat count. ah, but those inconvenient truths don't help the narrative.

the quebec-centric (do you have a better term?) vote is less than 40%, meaning that if the bloc is polling near 15 then roughly half of the ndp vote is federalist. this should be remembered when you're calling them a bunch of separatists. the ndp polled around 10% before 2011. that constructs a 10% swing amongst federalists on the left, which we can see in the higher end of the liberal predictions.

the way the vote is distributed may make this matter little. the liberals are probably not competitive outside of greater montreal, and the ndp will probably sweep the bulk of the province even if they come in at something like 37. but, there's plenty of seats around the island. is mulcair further to the right than trudeau? this is of greater importance than anything else.

while it's clearly mulcair's race to lose, there are decent betting odds of him managing it.

ipolitics.ca/2015/08/22/why-you-dont-see-trudeaus-face-on-campaign-posters-in-quebec/

ndp cabinet material

- libby davies
- joe comartin
- bruce hyer
- bill siksay

oh. wait...

to be fair, there's enough to form a small cabinet:

- nycole turmel
- romeo saganash
- peggy nash
- megan leslie
- peter julian
- jack harris
- linda duncan
- paul dewar
- david christopherson
- nikki ashton

after that, it trails off pretty quick.

LoggerheadShrike
Sure, if you call Andrew Thomson "trailing off". LOL. You've deliberately excluded the finance minister (the most important of the entire bunch!) among others.

deathtokoalas
well, he's gotta win his seat, first. he might have a hard time convincing torontonians to vote for him, considering that he's from saskatchewan. and the ndp are not usually competitive in the riding, to begin with. that's a pretty long shot candidate, really.

i think you can expect scott brison to be finance minister. i think that's the point of getting rid of morgan wheeldon. gotta get them trilateral commission stooges in....

LoggerheadShrike
The NDP aren't usually competitive there because it's usually a stronghold for either the CPC or LPC. It's a battleground riding now, pretty much up for grabs. The NDP has a decent shot at taking it. Not guaranteed, of course, but I wouldn't say it's a stretch by any means.

The Liberals missed their chance to run their star candidate there, as she failed to win nomination, so they're running a lightweight who will probably sit as a backbencher on the off chance he gets elected and the Liberals do well enough to form a government. That's not much to offer. The CPC are running their finance guy, and prior to the NDP announcing Thomson, he was only neck and neck with this minor Liberal, Mendocino - so he can't be very popular. The NDP, meanwhile, before any candidate was committed, was still riding at 20 percent. The NDP has a very good shot at seizing this riding, now that they're willing to commit their finance portfolio there.

deathtokoalas
that's an intriguing perspective of the nomination process in the riding.

LoggerheadShrike
Nothing in my post mentions the nomination process - only the outcome of that process (that Eve Adams failed to win nomination). What are you intrigued by, then? I think it's my turn to be intrigued here!

deathtokoalas
i have reason to think that scott brison may be in negotiations to cross. i think that's what the mess in the riding was about.

if i was ralph, i'd think about it.

there's a few others that, depending on the outcome, may be swayed. including elizabeth may.

LoggerheadShrike
Scott Brisson isn't in that riding. We're talking about Eglington-Lawrence which happens to be the riding the CPC and NDP are running their finance guys in (Joe Oliver, Andrew Thomson). Scott Brisson is also a finance guy (for the LPC) but he's not running in that riding - he is in a very secure riding in Nova Scotia, no mess at all. I think you got confused somewhere.

Brisson is certainly not going to cross to the NDP. He's a red Tory, and was originally elected as a Tory. One thing to cross to the Libs, but crossing to the NDP is a bridge too far to be believed.

deathtokoalas
you got confused; please go back and read the previous posts. you may also want to google morgan wheeldon to understand what i'm talking about.

the ndp are campaigning as conservatives, and have governed as conservatives at the provincial level. the current ndp leadership likely views brison's past as a red tory as an asset. he has cabinet experience. that's what the ndp are going to be going out of their way to pull away from the liberals if the result allows for it. you heard it here first: he's the most likely candidate for finance minister.

the bigger question with elizabeth is that i'm not sure they'd have her.