riding polls suggest that the ndp is likely to win one seat in edmonton, and the liberals might have a chance at one seat in calgary.

sorry: that is one seat on top of linda duncan's, for a total of two.

when riding model projections contradict riding polls, you want to take the riding polls, not the riding model projections. riding polls are direct measurement. riding model projections are really a kind of artistic expression.

if you'd like to publish some riding data, i'd be happy to see it. but, the data is as it is, and it simply does not point towards gains by the opposition parties in alberta at this time.

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-change-in-the-air-alberta-1.3250557

(lost post)

that is not reliable riding data. that is a riding model projection, which is an artist's rendition of a possible election outcome.

you can access actual riding data here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_Canadian_constituencies,_42nd_Canadian_Election#Alberta

the riding projections take province-wide data and then try to guess where it is.

now, honestly? sure: it makes sense to think the increase in non-conservative votes would be centered in the cities. however, the riding data says that this is wrong. so, where is it, then?

well, i've been leaning towards the idea that there's a hidden force at play (chp. socred, libertarian; i'm guessing, it's not remotely clear) and that there really isn't an increase in the other parties' vote totals, it just looks like that due to the shrinking useable sample. but, i would need to see a boost in "other" in alberta and saskatchewan for that to be true, and it's not panning out.

the liberals are an almost solely urban party. the ndp really aren't. they've always done well in the rural areas of western canada. and, the ndp won some rural seats at the provincial level.

if that's the case, i wouldn't expect to see any seat changes

it makes a little direct sense, too.

who is more affected by tar sands pollution: a pothead university student in calgary, or a farmer halfway between lethbridge and medicine hat?