well, this happened once before. in 2007, mario dumont in the adq got around 31% of the vote. but, the adq is a sovereigntist party, so that is an underestimation; federal conservative voters would often vote liberal at the provincial level. if you split the conservative numbers in half and add it to the bloc numbers, you're still barely approaching that 31% that the adq got. it's not clear if that's an actual ceiling, either.

but what that means is that the ndp must have attracted a significant number of adq voters, and also that the core of remaining bloc support right now is actually adq support - not pq support.

you also have to keep in mind that the ndp picked up at least 10% of the swing they got in 2011 from the liberals, and that this seems to have largely gone back to the liberals. they're consistently polling at or above where they were in 2008.

that means that, if they are pushed down to their core & bloc swing from 2011, it's around 30% - and that is not much higher than where the liberals are running, according to some polls. that would be with the bloc running where they were last election, the liberals running a bit above where they were in 2008 and more or less ignoring the conservatives [i'm taking that bump skeptically for now; let's see what the next batch of polls says].

it's easy to assign the bleed to the liberals on a general perception that the ndp is the new bloc, and it's easy to assign the swing back to the bloc as being soft votes that they picked up *after* the election defaulting back to where they were four years ago.

but, if you realize that there's no way to crunch the numbers without concluding that the ndp was getting adq support, you realize how fragile their lead really was. but, duceppe may be cutting off his nose, here. the bloc had to move left in the 90s for a reason. this may boost their numbers a little, but, in the end, it may end up recreating the same barrier to governance that the pq is seeing with the charter: it works to whip up certain kind of votes, but it makes them unelectable to far more people.

if the ndp and bloc split the sovereigntist vote, this will benefit the conservatives in some areas and the liberals in many more areas.

riding modelling is very difficult with three competitive parties. it's almost impossible with four competitive parties. popular vote totals start to become meaningless. if this stabilizes with the ndp around 30, the liberals around 25, the bloc around 25 and the conservatives around 20? the ndp could easily finish fourth in the seat count, as they lose riding after riding to the liberals and conservatives on the ndp-bloc split, and get beaten by the bloc in staunchly sovereigntist ridings.

as it is, i'm convinced that the models have been exaggerating the ndp seat totals by about ten seats, mostly at the expense of the liberals (because the models are already being generous to the conservatives). if the liberals keep that 10-15%, as small as a 5% swing back to the bloc over recent numbers (which would still be less than the bloc got in 2011) could absolutely destroy the ndp in the urban core up the st. lawerence, and create havoc up the ottawa, too. and, a 10% swing back to where the bloc were in 2011 could wipe them out - purely on the strength of federalist voters returning to the liberals.

as for the ad strategy? it's more right-wing strategizing. strong leaders. well, it's the corner he's painted himself into. he's at least probably right that he's fighting for conservative votes, be they "tim horton's socialists" or red tories. it's desperate; if it works in swinging conservatives to the ndp, it actually helps the liberals throughout most of ontario.

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tom-mulcair-justin-trudeau-campaign-ndp-1.3248885