by my count, the current breakdown of pledged delegates is:
clinton : 1303
sanders: 1087
there's some error involved. but that means the difference is around 216. if he can get at least six in wyoming, that's under 210 going into new york. which is close enough to be on target.
but i need to reiterate: the path i've presented indicates he needs to win at least +50 in new york. that means he's looking at 60% as a minimum target. although the sky won't fall if it's 57, either. it just means he needs to win even bigger in california. you get why this doesn't end before june 7, i gather?
but, he needs to win, and by more than 55%. he needs to be aiming for 60%. i went down this path for the following reasons:
(1) it's about the only way he's going to get the bump he needs to win the rest of the calendar by the margins he needs. he had to win in massachusetts and didn't. he had to win illinois big and didn't. he had to split in arizona and didn't. and etc. so, now he has to win in new york - and convincingly.
(2) it's really not impossible.
i've pointed out repeatedly that i reject racial-based demographic modeling as racist. and, i don't think clinton has any kind of a meaningful home state advantage in new york, either. she only picked new york because it was a safe seat. nobody voted for hillary clinton. they voted for the democrats. they could have a run a bouquet of flowers and it would have won. and, what did she do? she voted for an unpopular war and went after video games. her home state is arkansas, not new york.
conversely, new york is actually a pretty liberal place. it's somewhere that should really embrace what sanders stands for.
with a caveat. and that is money. the new york primary is going to be about class and turnout. clinton will do very well with wealthy democrats. and the deadline to register was last week. was he able to register enough voters to overwhelm the old guard?
if he can, we keep going. if he can't, it's time to start organizing the anti-war marches and labour activists against clinton.
fwiw? i don't see any reason to be particularly convinced that he can.