what i'm saying about karina gould is not so terrible. you just have to be starkly realistic about it.

in canada, the landslide effect will often swing ridings unexpectedly. now, i was probably the only person in the country that correctly called peterborough and burlington for the liberals (i also called kitchener, and was wrong). the reason is that liberals were polling at nearly 45% in ontario, and when that happens the whole province swings.

i think it was in 1993 when the liberals won 106 out of 106 ridings in ontario. every single riding over an area that is probably larger than washington, oregon and california combined. there's around 15 million people here.

such a landslide will probably happen again, but probably not in 2019. so, these normally conservative seats will almost certainly swing back. it's just a regression to the mean. and, there's no long term demographic reasons to think that either of these cities are likely to trend liberal, either. burlington is an established wealthy enclave of toronto, and peterborough is converting from a large town on the very outskirts of toronto into a wealthy suburb of it. so, the demographic trends both lean conservative.

it will be almost impossible for either mp to hold the seat.

so, what that means is that, whatever her qualifications and upsides, it is also the case that karina gould is one of the most expendable members in parliament. she might be the single most expendable. and, that's why she got stuck with the portfolio that nobody wants.

and, you know what? i bet neither one of them thought they were going to win, either. so, hey - it's been a fun ride, right? they won a seat they didn't expect win. they became cabinet ministers. it will look good on a resume for a real job.

but, that's no doubt the actual calculation, here. 

and, now i need to eat and put this down until i'm done.