i'm going to repeat a reality check i put down a few weeks ago: the united states is now a net exporter of oil.

so, you need to check your models on oil prices and the dollar. oil is still a commodity, of course. but, given that it is now being exported, you need to flip the model: they should move in the same direction.

that's right, kids: higher oil prices should bring the dollar up, now.

it won't last forever. but, don't be confused: it's entirely predictable.