so, this is what i was looking for: some actual data. don't misunderstand me: i'd like a larger sample size. but, aggregating data doesn't work like you think it does.

the most important bar here is the number for toronto. this is the first data i've seen that suggests that the fortress in toronto is cracking. trying to determine causality in context is perilous, but i'm going to suggest that all of the media telling people that the liberals can't win is finally seeping into the base - and they've flipped over to the ndp in droves.

if i'm right, and the media strategy was to prop the ndp up to try to split the vote, then this appears to have backfired. and, it may provide an answer to a long-running dispute that i've had with right-leaning liberal party supporters, who argued that ignatieff got beat by strategic voters moving to the conservatives to stop the ndp. that was the most transparent pile of bullshit from the start.

one of the things the media is forgetting to tell you is that the liberals have been uncompetitive outside of toronto (and ottawa) for years, anyways - and that there are enough seats in toronto that they could win by being the toronto party. they did that in 2014. so, this narrative isn't a new development. but, what is a new development is that idea that they're running in third in toronto, and, if that's true, they're going to get decimated pretty badly.

i know not to put everything into one poll, but we only have one poll.

and, i'm still skeptical about how well this polling is doing in measuring the breadth of the movement that's happening, or in modelling actual turnout on the ground.


https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ndp-surge-past-pcs-into-the-lead/