so, when i looked through all of these polls and saw that the ndp and conservatives were barely separated by the margin, and there were 15% undecided, a number larger than the spread, it seemed clear enough that the election was almost in play - that they had some chance of keeping the conservatives to a minority, if those undecideds were located in calgary and leaning slightly left, and not reporting it due to a bradley effect (being afraid to tell people they weren't conservatives).

but, now that the numbers have come in, it seems more likely that the bradley effect was on the right, and it was the closeness of the election that was an illusion. it seems like it was former wildrose supporters that didn't want to tell pollsters that they were considering bailing, and that the real takeaway is that infighting on the albertan right may continue to make elections competitive there.