i need to reiterate the point: what states do you expect warren to win?

she's not doing well in the south. biden's set to sweep, and sanders is doing much better with black voters.

i haven't actually seen any polls in the west, which is a bit of a problem - california isn't the last state any more. where's the polling?

she's doing better in the midwest and northeast, but the only polls i've seen have her tied for second, at best - and usually in the third.

it was a while ago, but the only polling i'd seen in massachusetts had her in third.

"well, biden's going to drop", you say. well, i don't agree - maybe he should drop but that doesn't mean he will. and, i agree that this is necessary for her, but it hardly seems sufficient.

if biden drops, sanders should pick up most of his support in the south, so that doesn't help her. it opens up a space in the west, but you've still got to deal with harris, even if sanders can't get traction, and if her base is educated woman, she's a potential block. there's at the least no clear path, and no evidence she'd do well. and, given that this viagra vote seems to be a real thing, biden dropping could very well help sanders more than warren, in the midwest and northeast. i think a fair assumption at this point is that it's a split, and then she's still not actually winning.

so, where's her base?

what states can she actually win?

and, if she can't win any, what's her plan? to limp into the convention with 35% of the votes, and hope they pick her without winning any actual states?

(and, bizarrely, there's a decent chance that they might.)

so, what happens if bernie drops out, then? well, there's your wild card - but what are the chances? regardless, is that her plan?

because, if it's not her plan, it doesn't seem that she actually has one.

logic tells me that she's going to look at the data and realize that she needs to drop out before iowa. but, i have this sneaking suspicion that the whole point of what she's doing is to try and muddy the field up - that she's running for vice president, and essentially just blocking sanders.

if this three way race lingers on, the only person that can win is biden, and it's going to be a messy process, as he does it.