so, i'm going to throw down a final nevada projection before i hop in the shower and pivot for the night.
the last couple of polls i saw had sanders jumping to a commanding lead, and warren kind of falling back. see, this is sort of a reflection of part of my apprehension about the coalition of reactionary forces that sanders has been building. you'd have to think that warren would have at least held her ground, right? not when the underlying electorate is holding to a more traditional concept of gender roles than you see throughout much of the country. it's these conservative latinx groups that are making me squeamish, and they do appear to have broken hard for sanders.
what's perhaps more concerning for sanders is where the rest of the numbers are.
if he's running at 35%, and that's roughly the size of the latino population, and he's at 50% in the latino population, then he's running at roughly 25% in the non-latino population. and, if he's actually running closer to 70% in the latino population, then those numbers come down even further. the persistent concern has been his low ceiling, and dominating latinx groups - who are not a majority, anywhere - isn't going to get him out of that.
as it is, all evidence does suggest that sanders may actually get to 30% this time. is that a strong showing for a frontrunner in february? if it's by dominating a single ethnic group that does not command a majority, anywhere?
i've also seen some further corroborating evidence that buttigieg is indeed rising, and am now willing to firm that up with some confidence.
what's perhaps more concerning for sanders is where the rest of the numbers are.
if he's running at 35%, and that's roughly the size of the latino population, and he's at 50% in the latino population, then he's running at roughly 25% in the non-latino population. and, if he's actually running closer to 70% in the latino population, then those numbers come down even further. the persistent concern has been his low ceiling, and dominating latinx groups - who are not a majority, anywhere - isn't going to get him out of that.
as it is, all evidence does suggest that sanders may actually get to 30% this time. is that a strong showing for a frontrunner in february? if it's by dominating a single ethnic group that does not command a majority, anywhere?
i've also seen some further corroborating evidence that buttigieg is indeed rising, and am now willing to firm that up with some confidence.
this is a caucus state, so expect it to be messy. local results could be weird, and minor candidates may get propped up.
but, here's my projection for the state on the first ballot:
sanders will do well in most districts, often getting close to or a little over 30%
buttigieg will be viable in most places, and will cross 20% in strong districts
biden & warren will mostly be unviable, but may get a small number of delegates
klobuchar & steyer will run flat, and below the threshold essentially everywhere
in the end, sanders will get most of the delegates.
but, here's my projection for the state on the first ballot:
sanders will do well in most districts, often getting close to or a little over 30%
buttigieg will be viable in most places, and will cross 20% in strong districts
biden & warren will mostly be unviable, but may get a small number of delegates
klobuchar & steyer will run flat, and below the threshold essentially everywhere
in the end, sanders will get most of the delegates.