Saturday, February 22, 2020

the tv coverage insisted that sanders won a blowout win (i think everybody realized he would win by a good margin, even if it comes down), that biden had a strong second place finish, that warren was a clear third and that buttigieg was a distant, also-ran fourth.

that's the narrative the party seems to want, right now - that buttigieg is failing with black and brown voters, because they're all a bunch of terrible homophobes.

however, according to aaron bycoffe at the 538 liveblog, the current partial results actually suggest the following delegate count:

As the results stand, with 4 percent of precincts reporting county delegate results (the number used to determine how many national delegates each candidate will get), Sanders would get 20 delegates, and Buttigieg and Biden would each get eight. Of the other candidates, Warren is closest to 15 percent — she has 13.6 percent in the 1st District and close to 12 percent in other areas.

in other words, while sanders is leading, buttigieg and biden are actually in a tie for second, and it is warren in a distant fourth. nevadans don't seem to hate the gay guy all that much after all - although they're a little apprehensive about the female.

why are they resisting this and insisting on pushing down this awful narrative instead?

because they think buttigieg is death for key demographics, and they understand the importance of winning college-educated, suburban white woman. nevada was supposed to push down the party line, not sink the establishment's ship. their gramscian conditioning isn't working, and they don't know what to do.

what are they waiting for?

my guess is that they're waiting for enough results to come in to maintain the party line narrative. there are probably results ready to release, but they don't align with what the party wants you to see, even in partial results. they don't want you to see biden slip, even for a second, so they're waiting for enough results to come in to ensure he maintains his place in order, or gets better.

and, it's taking hours and hours because it's not happening.

we'll probably get the results all at once to shocks and awws. and, everything will change, just right then.

i don't blame anybody for holding on until the results come in. i wouldn't drop right now, either.