Sunday, March 1, 2020

that's a somewhat sketchy calculation though, because it relies on exit poll numbers. i pulled out the actual initial vote totals for a reason. 

what i want to know is what percentage of biden's voters were black. i guess we can do this somewhat implicitly - if he got 48.4% of the vote, and 34.16% of total voters were black and voted for biden, then 34.16/48.4 = 70.6%. so, almost 71% of his voters were black.

and, that would mean that the number of black voters he got was 0.706*255,662 = 180497.  this is in very close agreement with the previous number.

likewise, if clinton got 73.44% of the vote and 52.46% of total voters were black and voted for clinton then 52.46/73.44 = 71.43% of her voters were black. .7143*272,379 = 194560. again, this is pretty close and pulls out the same roughly 15,000 vote spread.

his numbers are worse than clinton's. that's my point. and, if you identified clinton's major flaw as her inability to appeal to black voters at the same level as obama did, as though she ever could have, then biden is not a solution - he's worse, and the results will be worse.