so, the progressives on the fake left are whining and complaining that they don't care about white voters in the midwest anyways, and it doesn't matter what they think. they're not in the club; they don't want their votes.

first, i think you should listen carefully to what these people are saying and actually process it. do you really support that?

but, why are they wrong?

the argument seems to be that white people don't matter any more, and you win states like minnesota and wisconsin by sending ohan ilmar out to stir up the muslim vote. like, i'm not joking; this isn't sardonic. that's what they say, go listen to them.

they seem to think muslims are the in thing, and being a fundamentalist religious bigot is cool.

and, then they point to the fact that the margin in 2016 was small enough that they could have won if they had just increased black vote by a hair, regardless of what white voters did. ok.

then, worse, they argue that the decreases biden is seeing in support are demographics that didn't vote for them in 2016 anyways, so it doesn't matter.

why is this all basically retarded, from a numbers perspective?

if you look at the numbers in 2016 v 2012, the decrease in the black vote was (1) fairly small and (2) a lot less than decreases in other demographics. i've been pointing out for years that it's just flat out foolish to base your hopes in a region on winning 99% of a marginal demographic within it. yet, here we are again. you have to expect a little wandering, and that the only way you're going to hold that many black voters is by putting a black person at the top of the ticket.

will harris fix that and get black support back up to 99% in wisconsin? well, biden's numbers seem to have gone down in these areas since he announced, so it doesn't seem to be adding up that way, no.

even if it does, the opposite argument holds: the margin of difference was small enough that even getting to 99% of the black vote is unlikely to be enough to hold off a backlash, if it sets in with white voters. you could win every single black voter in these states, and still lose due to a minor shift in the white vote.

but, the really dumb part of the argument is how you could look at those numbers and come to that conclusion. the swing in wisconsin from 2012 to 2016 was well over five points, and blacks are only roughly 6% of the total voting population (and much less of the swing in the last election). if you intend to go from 90% of the black vote to 99% of the black vote, you are increasing your total vote count by .5%. max.

so, we're talking about something like a 0.3% swing in a state that you just lost more than 5% in. and, you apparently don't care about the other 4.5%. because you're a racist.

that 5% just voted for obama a few years ago, they're not too racist to vote for biden, now - and your insistence that they are is just rooted in your own politics of exclusion and priority.

and, when an equally small swing of white voters, .3-.5%, looks at the situation and says "i'm not racist, but enough's enough. this has to stop.", that is going to wipe out even the most hopeful gains in black voters.

and, you can yell and scream that you're with us or against us, and if you don't vote for us then you're racist and blah the fuck blah, but if people decide they're sick of the stupidity, it's not hard to delete and block...

winning back wisconsin by increasing black turnout was a bad strategy to start, and it's a worse one now.

there's nothing biden can really do. it's not his fault, it's just bad luck. but, let's be real here, and not stupid - this is going to help trump far more than it's going to hurt him, and you need to wake up if you can't see it.