Monday, April 26, 2021

it is very sad. i would never suggest otherwise.

but, we can do this simple math together:

955/208195 = 0.00458704579 ---> .4587% required emergency care
142/208195 = 0.00068205288 ----> .0682% went to the icu
8/208195 = 0.00003842551 ---> .0038% died

and, the denominator is of course an underestimate - perhaps by as much as a factor of 10.

it's always very sad when young people die, but anything has a concept of risk - including crossing the street. and, i know that's not what the families want to hear, but it's my job to tell them what they don't want to hear, if the raw data contradicts it.

how many people is 8 people, over about a year?

according to the following site, a total of 477 people under the age of 17 died of the flu in the last full flu year in the united states. let's round that up to 500.

the population of ontario is about 5% that of the united states. 500*.05 = 25.

again: it's very sad. but, the fact is that some number of young people are going to die of viruses every year and, if anything, 8 is a fairly low total, in comparison to past years.

so, let's be rational in our behaviour, please - even as we acknowledge tragedy when it's placed in front of us.