Tuesday, June 1, 2021

i think this gets the right idea for the summer. my weather forecasting may seem hokey, but it's just because it's based on a broader interpretation of the various oscillations that define the weather (and are broadly determined by solar output, first and foremost) and is adjusted to be specifically dialectical. so, i can't tell you what it's going to be like tomorrow, but i can provide a broader concept of what is happening.

the models want to focus on the pacific, and i understand why, but i think it's a mistake in the eastern part of north america. here, the same basic struggle between the warming atlantic and the now receding vortex (technically, the vortex is strengthening, but it means the cold air is receding) is what is going to primarily define the weather here, not pacific air from the west. as the vortex is receding with the sun, and the warming of the atlantic is accelerating, we should have a broadly warmer summer than we have had recently. if we get periodic shots of hot air from the pacific, it could lead to higher humidity as a kind of extra level of warmth, but it won't affect the general forecast.

the fact that the cold air is going to be receding for the next several years should amplify the effects of global warming in the atlantic, but we're still near the bottom of the cycle, remember. it's going to take some time for the energy at the northern latitudes, along that nasty tilt we have on our planet, to rebuild as it always does. so, if we see something like a lull in hot air from the atlantic due to too many hurricanes, or some particularly nasty cyclones in the east pacific, it could allow the lingering cold air to overtake the limes and sack the south.

but, i'm going to suggest we should broadly lean towards a warmer than usual summer due to the dominance of the warming atlantic on the patterns in the region.

and, i'm also going to expect a heavy hurricane season, as well - which our neighbours to the south should prepare for.