this article (https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/23/city-turnout-black-hispanic-neighborhoods-00191354) is wrong because it's making a logical mistake that i addressed in my comments about wayne county after the election - they are assuming that less votes for harris means less votes in total, rather than looking at issues like third parties and new voter registration.

the article suggests that this means that turnout was down by 14,000, which is really not by much, in total, but is a logical error.

what was turnout in these regions?

you can't just subtract the amount and decide it was down by 14,000 votes. jill stein and cornell west certainly got some amount of those votes, and it doesn't measure population changes, or the fact that a lot of black people from black neighbourhoods died of covid after the 2020 election.

what i had to measure in wayne county was the difference between democrat vote totals (which were down 60,000) and turnout, which was only down 13,000. in wayne county, trump increased his totals by about 24,000. if you were to look at just the republican and democrat numbers, you'd conclude that 60-24 = 36, so turnout was down by 36,000 votes. however, we know that the green party was up by 30,000 votes in wayne county, just to start with - and we know that turnout was only down 13,000, not 36,000. 

you would need to see what turnout is before you can make that deduction. you can't just subtract it out. that's wrong.

based on similar numbers from wayne county, if the difference is only 14,000 (rather than 36,000), it might suggest turnout in these counties might have even been up, but that's somewhat of a jump.

let me ask this question directly: does anybody have mortality data of black people dying from covid after nov 10th, 2020 or of the general population change in urban regions since the start of 2021?

i found this in philadelphia:

Between 2000 and 2020, Philadelphia saw a modest increase in its population. However, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 marked a turning point, with the city losing over 53,000 residents in the following years.

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Philadelphia’s population has declined in recent years.

This represents a decrease of 4.18% since the 2020 census, which recorded 1,600,684 inhabitants.

https://nchstats.com/philadelphia-population/

according to this article, turnout was down about 73,000 votes.

https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/decision-2024/voter-turnout-throughout-philly-area-mostly-lower-than-2020/4020775/

the decrease of about 70,000 is roughly in line with the population decrease of about 50,000.

this is detroit:

(https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/cities/22974/detroit/population)

the blue curve is population growth. the red curve is indicating a decease in population decline and a slight increase the last year, but it's still a year over year decrease from 2020-2024.

the difference between 2024 and 2020 in detroit is about 20,000, which is roughly in line with the decrease of 13,000.

given the demographic changes that happened after 2020 due to covid, you would expect decreases in total votes in the cities and increases in total votes in the counties, and that's what happened.

it shouldn't be presented as an argument that there was low turnout in cities; there was a general population decrease in cites (remember?), so the lower vote totals is in line with a decrease in population. in fact, trump increased his raw totals - not percentages - in these cities, despite the overall population decrease. harris' numbers moved with the general trend, and trump bucked the trend.